The bottom line, according to one former U.S. lawmaker who has spent time visiting with Iranian political and religious leaders on their own turf, is that the supreme leader himself is walking a tightrope between the elites, its hard-liners and Iran’s middle-class masses — who desperately long for an easing of international economic and travel sanctions.
“I don’t think there’s any question that Khamenei, as supreme leader, is shrewd enough to understand he has to balance these different constituencies,” said Jim Slattery, a former six-term congressman from Kansas who visited Tehran late last year through a Catholic University-backed effort known as the “Abrahamic Dialogue.”
Mr. Slattery, who slammed current U.S. leaders for ignoring the long and shifting history of American policy toward Tehran, said that it should be obvious that there are “powerful elements within Iran opposed to any rapprochement with the U.S.”
In an interview, he said three general groups carry more weight in the Majlis — Iran’s parliament — than do such moderate figures as President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, the lead nuclear negotiator.
The first group consists of wealthy elites, who have actually benefited from Western sanctions by creating businesses that either elude the sanctions or deliver products without competition from imports.
“This includes elements of the business world that are producing military hardware and are enjoying a very profitable time right now, as well as other elements of the business community that want to keep sanctions in place so that they can raise prices on other commodities,” said Mr. Slattery. “The second group is the very fervent religious element that believes rapprochement with the West will threaten the underpinnings of Iran’s Islamic revolution.
“The third group is made up of what I call the Iranian nationalists,” he said. “These are the very hard-line Quds force types — the fervent nationalists, who will die to protect Iranian honor and are opposed to rapprochement because they believe it will threaten their Persian heritage and culture.”
“They are also deeply resentful of Israeli influence in the United States,” he said.
Jockeying for influence
via NorthEast Calling http://ift.tt/1J1laT4
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